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Quantitative Sports Betting Models: Are They Sustainable?

We all work hard for our money and want to get the most bang for our buck. The same is true when it comes to wagering on sports.

With an increase in licensed sportsbooks, the search for betting strategies has accelerated. So, we’ve seen a marked increase in the number of sports betting strategies. One method that’s been receiving a particular amount of its attention is the quantitative betting model.

What is this betting model? Is it worth considering? Could it earn you a fortune?

In this article, we’ll have a closer look at just that.

Which Kinds of Quantitative Betting Model Are There?

Quantitative sports betting models

Before we dive into which kinds of quantitative sports betting models are available, let’s see what these betting models are.

Essentially, a quantitative sports betting model is an attempt to quantify, or to make measurable, the results of sports bets.

The approaches to this model vary; however, they all have one thing in common: they are all based on statistics.

Let’s have a look at one or two of the more common varieties of quantitative betting models and the bets related to them.

Monte Carlo Simulations

The most common kind of quantitative sports betting model out there is the Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulations try and predict the likelihood of a specific outcome, based on numerical data recorded in the past.

In an attempt to predict the results of a baseball game, they’ll look at the runs scored in the season, factor in variables and calculate a probability. While this model has a certain degree of accuracy, it isn’t the most straightforward betting strategy to adopt.

This is true for many quantitative models. Unless you have a firm grasp of statistical formulae and are well-versed in mathematical functions, you’re unlikely to adopt a quantitative model with ease.

That being said, if you were to take the time and put in the effort to understand and create a sports betting model that works for you, then you’re almost sure that it will yield dividends.

Of course, there’s much more to the Monte Carlo simulation, but we don’t have the time to do an intense study. We recommend having a more detailed look for yourself if this sort of betting is something that interests you.

Arbitrage Betting

A popular kind of betting based on quantitative models is arbitrage betting. When you’re arbitrage betting, you’re trying to ensure that you’ll have a profitable wager.

When you make an arbitrage bet, you take advantage of the difference between odds at varying sportsbooks. Essentially, you bet on both sides of a game or match, at different sportsbooks that offer you good odds.

By doing so, you ensure that one of the two wagers will return dividends.

Where does the quantitative model come in? Bettors develop algorithms that classify and identify sportsbooks on a plot graph. Once they’ve done this, they look for the sportsbooks on the outskirts of the plot.

The idea is that any sportsbook that doesn’t fit the general cluster, as far as the odds are concerned, will also not be in the broad group on the plot. These sportsbooks and bookies are appropriately known as outliers and are precisely the bookies that you’ll want to take advantage of when you’re arbitrage betting.

Which Model Is Best?

the best quantitative model

Which model is best? This is a relatively complex question, one which we’ll attempt to answer very simply.

We’ve only had a look at two of the myriad of quantitative models out there. When you’re getting started, we’d recommend starting with arbitrage betting.

Why? Because there’s a multitude of spreadsheets available that have already been set up for use.

You don’t have to go through all of the efforts of learning 1,001 Excel shortcuts, trying to understand how various functions work and trying to get a full grasp on the minutiae of the quantitative model.

If you start with arbitrage, then you can fill in the slots, based on the instructions, and work from there. This gives you an entry-level start on the quantitative sports betting model, without throwing you in the deep end.

Pre-set spreadsheets are also available for Monte Carlo simulations, but they’re harder to find and are much more complex.

Experts would argue for hours on end about which model is best. We believe that the best model is the one that you can understand and that’s easy to use.

Not even the most phenomenal model has any value if you don’t know how to use it.

The Advantages and Disadvantages of Using a Quantitative Model

You may have noticed by now that there’s a fair amount of things to learn where quantitative sports betting models are concerned.

Any category as complex as quantitative models has a reasonable amount of advantages and disadvantages to consider. Let’s take a closer look.

  • Advantages:
  • A reasonable degree of accuracy
  • Many models guarantee a return of some sort
  • Pre-set spreadsheets are available for many models
  • Disadvantages:
  • Disastrously involved, and can be hard to understand
  • Building your own model takes a lot of time and effort
  • To construct your quantitative model, you need a firm knowledge of statistics, and grasp of mathematical concepts
  • Some models demand a large bankroll to succeed
  • Some models are frowned upon by operators

Is it Risky to Use a Quantitative Sports Betting Model?

As with all betting strategies, there are no guarantees. There’s a risk to any gambling or betting activity.

What are the risks specific to using a quantitative sports betting model?

Firstly, many operators frown upon approaches like arbitrage betting. This is so much so that many operators have conditions allowing them to terminate your account if you’re caught using such strategies. This is known as a minimised risk betting clause.

Even if you do find an operator that’s okay with arbitrage betting or other quantitative approaches, they’ll usually not be in favour of you using such strategies at two of their branches. This puts you in a position of having to very carefully ensure that any sportsbook you use is unrelated to any other sportsbook that you use.

That’s nothing more than an inconvenience. However, if you do accidentally use two operators in the same group, it’s entirely possible that both operators could terminate your account. The group will also ban you from all of its other casinos and sportsbooks.

The majority of risks associated with quantitative models, however, will come from your lack of understanding of the system.

You might think that you’ve found a virtually foolproof approach. However, if you don’t understand it, then it may just prove you wrong.

Therefore, take all the usual precautions. Please do your research and only go live with the betting strategy after you fully comprehend it, and once you know the risks involved.

We hope that this article has answered all of your questions regarding quantitative sports betting models and that you find everything that you need if you want to give this approach a try.