Betting on the Favourite: When is it a Good Strategy?
When it comes to any form of wagering, it’s common for people to seek a strategy that guarantees success. One of the most commonly adopted strategies, especially among beginners, is to bet on the market favourites.
This approach may not be wholly without merit, but it also isn’t foolproof. In fact, more often than not, it would turn out to be rather foolish. In this article, we’ll tell you when it’s wise to bet on a favourite, and why betting on the favourites isn’t generally a good strategy.
Isn’t the Favourite the Contender That’s Most Likely to Win?
Before we can discuss the advantages and disadvantages of wagering on a favourite, we must first dispel a common misconception.
It’s commonly believed, especially among amateurs and new punters, that the favourite is the contender that’s most likely to win a match or game.
If that were the case, then betting on the favourite every time would be the best strategy to adopt.
However, the favourite isn’t the contender that’s most likely to win. Instead, the favourite is the contender that most bettors believe will win.
How Do Bookmakers Set Odds?
Before you’re fully able to understand how bookies set favourites, you must first understand the basics of the odds market.
Rather than being set on the likelihood of wins or losses, bookies set odds according to the activity of bettors.
Bookmakers and sportsbooks are continually making minor changes to the odds on offer. They do this in response to their customers’ betting activity.
In fact, it’s entirely possible for one bettor to change the odds significantly by placing a large enough wager. Bookies do this to try and keep the odds balanced for both teams. Remember, bookies are not on anyone’s side; they only offer a service.
Every bookie aims to make a profit, and they do so by keeping the odds balanced and by trying to make sure that people bet equally on both sides.
They also keep a close eye on the members of various teams and athletes themselves, or even contenders for the election (yes, people wager on the outcome of elections).
Any factors that could potentially swing the public opinion regarding a contender affect the odds.
As you can see, the reality of the odds markets is that it’s based on public opinion.
When Is Betting on a Favourite a Good Idea?
After all of this discussion of the potential pitfalls, you probably find yourself wondering whether wagering on a favourite is ever a good strategy. As with most things, there’s a long answer and a short answer.
The short answer is, yes. Betting on a favourite can sometimes be a good strategy.
Now let’s have a look at the long answer. Under which conditions can wagering on a favourite be a good idea, and how?
Wagering of any sort has one strict rule: always know what you’re betting on.
The key to being a successful punter is gathering as much knowledge as possible about the thing that you’re wagering on.
This strategy is no different. It’s quite safe to bet on the favourite if it’s a logical thing to do. For example, if a team is on a straight winning run, and they happen to be the favourite, then they’re probably a good bet.
If a golfer is a favourite because he generally does well, but he’s just gone through a divorce or lost a family member, then he’s probably the favourite due to public opinion. The chances of a player going through a traumatic time, but playing at their average skill level, are slim.
Do your research and have as much information as possible at your disposal.
Whether you’re wagering on the elections, wagering on sports or just playing the ponies, only wager on the favourites if they’re backed up by good sense.
Main Reasons Why Betting on the Favourite Isn’t a Good Strategy
As we mentioned previously, wagering on a favourite can be a good strategy, but it usually isn’t. In this section, we’ll be looking at all the reasons why you should not bet on the favourites.
In case you’re unaware of the facts, online gambling and wagering is a multibillion-dollar industry worldwide.
Many casino operators, sportsbooks and bookies spend a lot of time and money trying to make money.
As a result, there’s a lot of competition in the gambling industry, and some operators resort to drastic measures. For example, some sportsbooks may pay people with a large following to spread rumours, or false information, about athletes, election candidates, etc.
But why? That’s a straightforward question and a very complex one. The simple answer is if you can influence public opinion, then you get to affect the odds.
If they can influence the odds and enough people bet on the favourite, while very few people bet on the underdog, they make a higher profit margin. This may also be the case with some bettors looking to sway the odds in their favour.
There are other obstacles apart from supplying the markets with false information.
We’ve already seen how false information sways public opinion. However, it goes far beyond that.
In the end, public opinion is still just opinion. Many things influence beliefs: prejudice, past experiences and even loyalty to a specific team.
All of these things mean that the betting favourite may be the worst possible bet you can make.
The last reason why wagering on a favourite isn’t a good strategy is that the payouts are lower. Because the bookies are aware of which contender is the favourite, they offer a lower payout and lower odds.
Betting on an underdog, though it may seem counter-intuitive, usually results in a higher payout because the odds are lower.
When Should You Bet on Your Favourite Team?
Now that we’ve taken a look at betting on the general favourite, and whether or not it’s a good strategy, we’ve one more thing to look at. Is it ever a good idea to bet on your personal favourite? If so, when?
As was the case with the general favourites, betting on your favourite can sometimes be a good strategy.
In our daily lives, loyalty is everything—dedication towards our friends, co-workers, family and sports teams. However, when it comes to wagering, all bets are off.
You don’t want to place misguided bets out of a sense of loyalty toward your team. The only time that you should bet on your favourite team is when it’s a good strategy. If the signs indicate that your team will probably win, then that’s the right time for you to bet on your favourite team.
Betting on the Favorite as a Strategy: the Conclusion
As you can see, although wagering on a favourite has its place in the wagering world, it’s not always a good strategy. We hope that you’ve had your questions answered by this article and that you now have enough information to bet wisely.